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	<title>Comments for The Long Run Blog</title>
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	<link>http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com</link>
	<description>Critical Thinking on Money, Finance, and Economics</description>
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		<title>Comment on How is Vegas treating jugglers? by Brett</title>
		<link>http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/2009/11/12/how-is-vegas-treating-jugglers/#comment-535</link>
		<dc:creator>Brett</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:18:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/?p=1256#comment-535</guid>
		<description>Thanks Michael!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks Michael!</p>
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		<title>Comment on GDP, Truth Twisters and, well, Duh by Brett</title>
		<link>http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/2009/11/03/gdp-truth-twisters-and-well-duh/#comment-534</link>
		<dc:creator>Brett</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:53:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/?p=1242#comment-534</guid>
		<description>I stumbled upon a different estimate of stimulus spending by quarter: $80B in 2Q and $85B in 3Q. If so, it appears the multiplier was &lt;1 in 2Q and rising above 1 in 3Q. Estimating multipliers = throwing darts.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I stumbled upon a different estimate of stimulus spending by quarter: $80B in 2Q and $85B in 3Q. If so, it appears the multiplier was &lt;1 in 2Q and rising above 1 in 3Q. Estimating multipliers = throwing darts.</p>
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		<title>Comment on GDP, Truth Twisters and, well, Duh by Brett</title>
		<link>http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/2009/11/03/gdp-truth-twisters-and-well-duh/#comment-533</link>
		<dc:creator>Brett</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:43:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/?p=1242#comment-533</guid>
		<description>Agreed. Does anything work as the government promises? As you said, it was &quot;being sold&quot;. I also see little value in calculating multipliers, especially over such short periods. But, if you want to indulge, I think it may have been less than 1 as such: ~$125B spent vs $113B change in GDP Q/Q. Of course, we&#039;re guessing here, but time will tell. It is certainly possible it turns out to be &gt;1; and it won&#039;t be constant since velocity, psychology and other factors play a part.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agreed. Does anything work as the government promises? As you said, it was &#8220;being sold&#8221;. I also see little value in calculating multipliers, especially over such short periods. But, if you want to indulge, I think it may have been less than 1 as such: ~$125B spent vs $113B change in GDP Q/Q. Of course, we&#8217;re guessing here, but time will tell. It is certainly possible it turns out to be &gt;1; and it won&#8217;t be constant since velocity, psychology and other factors play a part.</p>
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		<title>Comment on GDP, Truth Twisters and, well, Duh by Gavin Andresen</title>
		<link>http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/2009/11/03/gdp-truth-twisters-and-well-duh/#comment-532</link>
		<dc:creator>Gavin Andresen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:31:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/?p=1242#comment-532</guid>
		<description>If I&#039;m following your math, it looks like the stimulus has a multiplier of about 1.

The government spent a dollar, and GDP went up about a dollar.  That makes sense to me, since government spending is one of the terms in the definition of GDP.

When the stimulus was being sold back in January, we were told that the multiplier should be 1.3 in the third quarter (rising eventually to 1.5 -- see &lt;a href=&quot;http://tinyurl.com/9utxyb&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Greg Mankiw&#039;s blog&lt;/a&gt; for discussion and pointers to the Romer/Bernstein PDF).

I agree that Romney is wrong when he says &quot;the stimulus didn&#039;t work.&quot;  

However, it seems to me it would be reasonalbe to say &quot;the stimulus didn&#039;t work as well as we were promised.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If I&#8217;m following your math, it looks like the stimulus has a multiplier of about 1.</p>
<p>The government spent a dollar, and GDP went up about a dollar.  That makes sense to me, since government spending is one of the terms in the definition of GDP.</p>
<p>When the stimulus was being sold back in January, we were told that the multiplier should be 1.3 in the third quarter (rising eventually to 1.5 &#8212; see <a href="http://tinyurl.com/9utxyb" rel="nofollow">Greg Mankiw&#8217;s blog</a> for discussion and pointers to the Romer/Bernstein PDF).</p>
<p>I agree that Romney is wrong when he says &#8220;the stimulus didn&#8217;t work.&#8221;  </p>
<p>However, it seems to me it would be reasonalbe to say &#8220;the stimulus didn&#8217;t work as well as we were promised.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>Comment on Deflation, Not Inflation, Is Your Worst Enemy by mattical</title>
		<link>http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/2008/11/19/deflation-not-inflation-is-your-worst-enemy/#comment-530</link>
		<dc:creator>mattical</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Oct 2009 23:36:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/?p=530#comment-530</guid>
		<description>Deflation is only your enemy if you are highly leveraged. People who own, rather than borrow, cash benefit from increased purchasing power. 

Borrowers are hurt by deflation because they repay debt with stronger dollars. The reverse is true for lenders; they benefit like cash owners--if they get their money back. 

Once again, if you own cash deflation is your best friend.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Deflation is only your enemy if you are highly leveraged. People who own, rather than borrow, cash benefit from increased purchasing power. </p>
<p>Borrowers are hurt by deflation because they repay debt with stronger dollars. The reverse is true for lenders; they benefit like cash owners&#8211;if they get their money back. </p>
<p>Once again, if you own cash deflation is your best friend.</p>
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		<title>Comment on &#8220;Be Your Own Banker&#8221; by jjschmidt</title>
		<link>http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/2009/04/22/be-your-own-banker/#comment-528</link>
		<dc:creator>jjschmidt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Oct 2009 21:29:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/?p=994#comment-528</guid>
		<description>I have researched this process fully and in this article the writer is correct for the first 12 years or so.  If you would continue this out 20 years and further the strategy using Whole life works much better than any other option.  If you want to take a lot of risk in the market thinking you will get 10% return and you are able to do a Roth IRA then you may be better off doing the Roth.  Most people do not have the discipline to continue the payments and to be somewhat locked in for a hand full of years.  We all want everything right now and we do not have the patience to be in it for the long haul.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have researched this process fully and in this article the writer is correct for the first 12 years or so.  If you would continue this out 20 years and further the strategy using Whole life works much better than any other option.  If you want to take a lot of risk in the market thinking you will get 10% return and you are able to do a Roth IRA then you may be better off doing the Roth.  Most people do not have the discipline to continue the payments and to be somewhat locked in for a hand full of years.  We all want everything right now and we do not have the patience to be in it for the long haul.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Brett on Conspiracy Skeptic by Brett</title>
		<link>http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/2009/09/28/brett-on-conspiracy-skeptic/#comment-527</link>
		<dc:creator>Brett</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2009 21:15:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/?p=1205#comment-527</guid>
		<description>My voice! Ugh. Maybe I&#039;ll relax enough one of these time so it sounds normal. Still doesn&#039;t sound right to me. It was a really fun episode.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My voice! Ugh. Maybe I&#8217;ll relax enough one of these time so it sounds normal. Still doesn&#8217;t sound right to me. It was a really fun episode.</p>
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		<title>Comment on My Favorite EconTalk podcasts by Julio</title>
		<link>http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/2009/09/21/my-favorite-econtalk-podcasts/#comment-526</link>
		<dc:creator>Julio</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2009 19:10:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/?p=1193#comment-526</guid>
		<description>One of my favorite podcasts next to yours. I&#039;m listening to the Theory of Moral Sentiments read-along right now. Very thought provocative.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One of my favorite podcasts next to yours. I&#8217;m listening to the Theory of Moral Sentiments read-along right now. Very thought provocative.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Hockey Fans- help me with this logic by jedischooldropout</title>
		<link>http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/2009/09/03/hockey-fans-help-me-with-this-logic/#comment-525</link>
		<dc:creator>jedischooldropout</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Sep 2009 22:47:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/?p=1168#comment-525</guid>
		<description>Looks like the essentials have all been said, but I thought I&#039;d chime in, seeing as for a change the subject is something I actually have some experience in, allowing me to raise above lurker status on this blog.

I spent several years playing in a very popular free drop-in game in Vancouver.  There were regularly more people than could practically be used as skaters and less than we needed to be goalies.  

This often meant that if you wanted ice time you had to cobble together enough equipment that you were willing to risk the hygiene of from other people, and have the balls to stand in net and let people hit a frozen disc of rubber at you at close to a hundred miles an hour.

The best goalie amongst us, Jaimie, HATED playing goal, because despite his skill he was not bat-s**t crazy.
I played goal often due to a certain fearlessness that other players hated when I skated, but appreciated when I was in goal... &#039;cause then they could &#039;balance the books&#039; with me with impunity.  I just wanted to be in the game, and would take the ice time any way I could get it... even though I was notoriously bad at stopping pucks.

So yes - you need to be out of your skull to play goal.  As a result, it becomes a supply and demand issue.  And if you had a choice between losing every game with me in goal, or paying for Jaimie&#039;s beer after the game to convince him to step into the paint and give your team a chance to actually win; then you bought Jaimie&#039;s beer.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Looks like the essentials have all been said, but I thought I&#8217;d chime in, seeing as for a change the subject is something I actually have some experience in, allowing me to raise above lurker status on this blog.</p>
<p>I spent several years playing in a very popular free drop-in game in Vancouver.  There were regularly more people than could practically be used as skaters and less than we needed to be goalies.  </p>
<p>This often meant that if you wanted ice time you had to cobble together enough equipment that you were willing to risk the hygiene of from other people, and have the balls to stand in net and let people hit a frozen disc of rubber at you at close to a hundred miles an hour.</p>
<p>The best goalie amongst us, Jaimie, HATED playing goal, because despite his skill he was not bat-s**t crazy.<br />
I played goal often due to a certain fearlessness that other players hated when I skated, but appreciated when I was in goal&#8230; &#8217;cause then they could &#8216;balance the books&#8217; with me with impunity.  I just wanted to be in the game, and would take the ice time any way I could get it&#8230; even though I was notoriously bad at stopping pucks.</p>
<p>So yes &#8211; you need to be out of your skull to play goal.  As a result, it becomes a supply and demand issue.  And if you had a choice between losing every game with me in goal, or paying for Jaimie&#8217;s beer after the game to convince him to step into the paint and give your team a chance to actually win; then you bought Jaimie&#8217;s beer.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Lehman Remembered by kamamer</title>
		<link>http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/2009/09/15/lehman-remembered/#comment-524</link>
		<dc:creator>kamamer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Sep 2009 15:35:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thelongrunblog.wordpress.com/?p=1189#comment-524</guid>
		<description>That ebay site is a whole pile of awesome! I wish they would ship to Canada. I think I&#039;d get some stuff. Totally.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That ebay site is a whole pile of awesome! I wish they would ship to Canada. I think I&#8217;d get some stuff. Totally.</p>
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